October Results and Ivey Final Table Bet

Yeah, I know a week late, so sue me. October ended up being a really good month for me winning about $17k. I was up $30k on the 29th or so, but that’s poker and I’m definitely not about to complain about my results for the month. I’ll post a graph and my desktop HEM results.

HEM desktop graph

HEM desktop stats

October ATMs, netted a little over $400 after expenses

I played a decent amount on my laptop and I can’t seem to get PT stud to collect all the hand histories correctly so the pictures are not the true results(which I have track by looking at BR #s from begin to end of month), but it’s the best I can do. I really wish HEM would hurry up and get stud and triple draw tracking as I really hate having inaccurate records. I think the main problem is HEM is taking the 8 game hand histories and moving them before PT stud can import them, but I’m not really sure how to fix it. I’m too dumb to figure it out, and I’d be more than willing to pay a premium for HEM stud tracking so if you’re listening HEM guys, hurry up so I can ship you your monies!

I logged on today to read the front page article on cardplayer.com saying how Ivey was the betting favorite to win the main event at 7/2 odds even though he only has 5% of the chips. I immediately thought this was insane and wanted to find out where I could put some money down laying 7/2 he would not win. First place I looked was Bodog.com and just wow. Consider this my PSA to the world to never place a bet at bodog.com and be very wary of placing bets with bookmakers that don’t offer both sides of a bet. They offer 7/2 odds all right, but you can only bet for Ivey to win. I ended up finding matchbook.com which I do recommend for your sports betting needs (for US customers that is, outside of US you may look into pinnaclesports.com). They currently offer 7/1 against and 6.2/1 for Ivey to win. In case you don’t realize how badly Bodog.com is raping their customers on their bet let me break this bet down for you mathematically.

Bodog is offering 7/2 odds Ivey will win. This means you can bet $100 to win $350. On matchbook.com you can bet $100 to win $620. Let’s suppose matchbook.com has the true line, this means Ivey will win 1/(1+(7+6.2)/2) or 1/7.6 times = 13.16% of the time. So bodog’s profit on each $100 bet is .1316*-250+(1-.1316)*100=$53.94 So your ROI on making this bet with bodog.com is -54%. Jesus Christ Bodog really!? I mean, I know you are a casino and just trying to make a profit, but this is why sports betting online should just be completely legalized in my opinion. Because if there were thousands of online sportsbooks available to the US consumer, like there are thousands of market makers in the US for the stock market (which is completely legalized gambling in my opinion) the few bookmakers with a virtual monopoly on the market wouldn’t be able to get away with such ridiculous price gouging.

PS Another way to calculate their profit on the bet is to assume they immediately hedge all bets for Ivey at 7/2 with matchbook’s 6.2/1 against. So if Ivey wins they pay out $250 and collect $520 for every $100 bet for a net profit of $270. If Ivey loses, they collect the $100 wagered. So their avg profit is .1316*270+(1-.1316)*100=$122.37 per $100 wagered. It’s kinda confusing that they can make more than is wagered, but basically if you win, they win even more than you do, and if you lose, they collect all the bets.

The first way calculates the bettor’s theoretical ROI, whereas the second calculates the book maker’s profit per $100 bet assuming they hedge elsewhere (which they don’t btw, they just offer really bad odds on all the runners in effect doing their own hedging and actually make WAY more than this per bet placed).

Anyways, after all my research I decided not to bet with the odds I could get. Laying Ivey at 14% odds chance to win is probably still a good bet in my opinion but just not good enough of a bet for me and I’m not really willing to risk the $1000 to win only $143 for what’s likely a 2-3% edge. With 5% of the chips in play he obviously has much better than a 5% chance to win because he’s

1) The best player in the world and
2) Definitely going for the win at all costs whereas some other players will probably be perfectly happy to move up the pay scale 2 or 3 people and then bust

I just kinda doubt these factors increase his chances of winning three times as much as the average player at the final table. Especially with all the coaching the final 9 will have received over the past couple of months.

Besides if I bet against him that means I can’t root for him to win! Go Phil!

This vid starts off kinda slow, but I PROMISE you it gets better!