Title says it all. I’m heading out to Vegas next week for my annual wsop pilgrimage. I’ll try and blog about every event I play like I do every year so check back for updates! I’m planning on playing ten to fifteen events, more than I’ve ever played. Last year I only played seven including the main event.
I’ll be there for thirty days in June. Four of these days my fiancee will be visiting so I won’t play any during that time. I’m not rich/crazy enough to play two events in one day so if I busted out on day one of every event I played the max I could play is ~25 events. Add to this the fact that I won’t play anything over a $3k buyin, I’m sure I’ll spend some days drinking by the pool and I don’t really like the $1k events or PLO events(both have too shallow starting stacks IMO). I’ll probably end up playing ten to fifteen events. It seems like every other year you hear about a guy who never played PLO in his life ended up winning the $1.5k PLO. This is a pretty good indicator this event is more luck than skill in my opinion.
I figured I’d do some math so I could come in with realistic expectations for my results. Last year I cashed two out of my seven events and clearly ran better than expected. I figure a good cash % is around 15% and a good final table % is around 2.5%, but these are clearly just guesses. Based on these numbers, if I play ten events I can expect
To cash in 1-2 events (10*.15=1.5)
I have a 25% chance of final tabling a single event (10*.025=.25)
There is a 20% chance I don’t cash in any events (.85^10=.2)
On average I should expect to go about four events before my first cash (.85^4=.52)
If I play fifteen events, I can expect
To cash in 2 events (15*.15=2.25)
I have a 37.5% chance of final tabling a single event (15*.025=.375)
There is a 9% chance I don’t cash in any events (.85^15=.09)
On average I should still expect to go about four events before my first cash
I’d REALLY like to make my first final table this year, but clearly the odds are not in my favor. More volume definitely translates into a better expectations, but honestly if I go 0-10 I may call it quits. Losing $20k straight is never fun. I’ve been trying to work out regularly and doing my best to play some bitcoin poker and play money poker on pokerstars in preparation. I have no doubt I’m a shell of the player I once was a couple years ago, but I would like to think I have more experience and am wiser for it even if some of my raising/calling ranges aren’t as profitable as they once were. I still like my odds vs all the $1.5k wsop donks. Best of luck at the wsop. I’m certainly looking forward to it and hope you are too!