Poker Bluff Tools Relaunch

I’m happy to say I’ve completely updated and revamped Poker Bluff Tools adding both a range selector tool and fold equity calculator. You can download a completely free 30 day trial here. Please let me know if you like it and how it can be improved. I’ve been saving this blog post for almost six months now so I could finish up the Poker Bluff Tools update and properly evaluate the hands I played this summer.

I played WSOP event #13 the $1500 no limit hold’em shootout Wednesday with no success. I’m not really surprised just a little disappointed, I mean I think the avg winning player cashes in something like 15% of these things? I thought I played pretty well, but I was unsure of a couple decisions I made prior to busting.

I played pretty tight early on and let the donks knock themselves out which I thought was common knowledge for basic sit n go strategy yet I still witnessed young (supposedly good?) online guys calling 3 bets out of position with 8Ts and crap. Sure the other guy ends up showing down T6s, but it all seems like pretty big spew to me. There’s no doubt in my mind these tournies are good value.

I basically play no hands except for the occasional blind steal or blind defense and find myself five handed with 500 less than the starting stack of 4500, with 4000 in chips. The structure is definitely quicker than the other 1500s, as it skips the 75/150 level and goes straight from 50/100 to 100/200 in level 4. I don’t really mind the jump, as usually most of the donks have knocked themselves out by this time, and it’s mostly a shove luckfest at that point, but it’s worth noting.

Anyways it folds to me on the button and I have the two beautiful looking Jacks for the first interesting decision. I make a standard 2.5x open to 500, and the small blind who has me slightly covered with 5100 in chips makes it 1300 to go. At this point I’m licking my chops ready to get it in expecting to be a pretty sizeable favorite when the big blind ruins my party and instantly announces he is all in after looking at his cards for about 5300 total.

$100/$200 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/

Stacks:
UTG $20,000
CO $10,600
andr3w321 (BTN) $4,000
SB $5,100
BB $5,300

Pre-Flop: ($300, 5 players) andr3w321 is BTN Jd Jh
2 folds, andr3w321 raises to $500, SB raises to $1,300, BB goes all-in $5,300

Final Pot: $7,100

The fact is I think the big blind isn’t doing this with Tens ever, as he should at least think about folding and the same for AQ. The small blind can also easily have a higher pair than me. If I fold I’m left with 3500 or 17.5 big blinds with no antes or an M of 12 and still an okay reshoving stack. If I call I may triple up and cripple two of my opponents. If I fold I let them tango with no risk to me, and in all likelihood say goodbye to one of my competitors and am left four handed with plenty of time to find a good reshove spot. What would you do?

Well, I ended up folding and I was really unsure of my decision, but utilizing poker bluff tools I was able to find I made the correct play. There are two scenarios that can play out if I call.

1) SB folds and I am headsup with the BB for a pot of 9,300 chips
2) SB overcalls and I am 3 way for a pot of 12,000 chips

For the first scenario I have equity of 36.2%.

Hold’Em Equity Calculator by http://www.PokerBluffTools.com
Board:
Dead:
Equity Win Tie Wins Ties
Hero: 36.24% 36.03% 0.21% 360271 2147.00 { JdJh }
Villain 1: 63.76% 63.54% 0.21% 635435 2147.00 { QQ+,AKs,AKo }

Solving for expected value I find that by making this call I lose 138 chips on average. A clear losing play.

Call Calculator by http://www.PokerBluffTools.com
Amount to Call: 3500.00
Total Pot After Call: 9300.00
Pot Odds: 37.63%
Equity: 36.15%
Expected Value: -138.05

For the second scenario I find I have 28.56% equity.

Hold’Em Equity Calculator by http://www.PokerBluffTools.com
Board:
Dead:
Equity Win Tie Wins Ties
Hero: 28.56% 28.18% 0.38% 185177 2479.67 { JdJh }
Villain 1: 46.43% 44.74% 1.69% 293954 11110.17 { QQ+,AKs,AKo }
Villain 2: 25.01% 23.06% 1.94% 151520 12771.17 { 88+,AJs+,AJo+ }

Solving for expected value I find that by making this call I lose 76 chips on average. Not quite as bad, but still a clear losing play.

Call Calculator by http://www.PokerBluffTools.com
Amount to Call: 3500.00
Total Pot After Call: 12000.00
Pot Odds: 29.17%
Equity: 28.53%
Expected Value: -76.40

Of course being results oriented like we all are, after I fold the sb decides he has to call with his AQo and the big blind tables AKo. Jack on the flop and AK ends up taking the 10,000 chip pot down. Obviously, if I could have seen their hole cards I’d have known I was making a -2000 chip decision, but at least I can take solace in knowing I made the theoretically correct laydown.

So then I’m down to four handed and manage to get a walk in the big blind before my final bustout hand comes. It was pretty standard, but worth analyzing nonetheless.

$100/$200 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/

Stacks:
CO $20,000
BTN $10,600
andr3w321 (SB) $3,500
BB $10,900

Pre-Flop: ($300, 4 players) andr3w321 is SB Ks Js
1 fold, BTN raises to $500, andr3w321 goes all-in $3,500, 1 fold

Final Pot: $4,200

Button opens to 500 and I am in the small blind with about 3500 chips. I have KJs and shove all in. Using Poker Bluff Tools’ fold equity calculator I can guess that the button is opening roughly 70% of the time here and calling all broadway, aces and pairs. With those assumptions I get a fold equity of 60.65%. Plugging the calling range into villain 1, and giving myself KJs I get an equity of 46.75% when called.

Hold’Em Equity Calculator by http://www.PokerBluffTools.com
Board:
Dead:
Equity Win Tie Wins Ties
Hero: 46.75% 44.96% 1.79% 404203 16057.50 { KJs }
Villain 1: 53.25% 51.47% 1.79% 462698 16057.50 { KTs+,QTs+,JTs,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,22+,A2s+,A2o+ }

Plugging in the remaining unknowns for the Semi Bluff Calculator and solving for expected value I get a positive chip EV of 545 chips.

Semi Bluff Calculator by http://www.PokerBluffTools.com
Equity When Called: 46.75%
Pot Size Prebluff: 800.00
Bluff Amount: 3400.00
Fold Equity: 60.65%
Expected Value: 545.41

Unfortunately, results were he called with KQo. I have KsJs, flop is Ts8s6h giving me hope, but the turn and river were no help and I was out in 4th at my table. If I wanted to I could figure out an optimal shoving range for myself in this spot given my assumptions(set EV to 0 and then solve for equity to get 28.51%, change hero’s hand from KJs to 100% of hands and you still get 38% which means you’re still profiting 287 chips by shoving 100% of your range if he folds that often), or even use the Call Calculator to figure out from my villain’s perspective an optimal calling range given my shoving range(he needs 48% equity to call).

Call Calculator by http://www.PokerBluffTools.com
Amount to Call: 3000.00
Total Pot After Call: 6200.00
Pot Odds: 48.39%
Equity: 48.39%
Expected Value: 0.00

Please let me know if all the above was simple enough to follow along or if you you’d like me to make a youtube video walking through the hands or any other hands for you. I hope you can see the power of Poker Bluff Tools and will give it a try.

In case you missed it last week: