You all probably should have done and know this by now but in case you haven’t here’s some freebies.

Formula used for calculating odds on any poker bet
x% of time we win A
1-x% of time we lose B

Now for some preflop math. All percentages assume villain either folds or raises to our bet. I used standard 5/10 betting amounts because that’s what I’m used to.

Pure Steal Preflop
win 15 x%
lose 30 1-x%
x=35/50=70%(We have to win slightly less % of the time by raising 3x instead of 3.5x, of course this has the disadvantage of juicing the pot less when we take it down with a cbet. 5/10 is often a raise or fold game though which is why I prefer 3x as opposed to 3.5x preflop)

3-Bet Preflop
win 35+15=50 x%
lose 110 1-x%
x=90/140=64%(If we only 3 bet to 9 big blinds we only have to win 64% of the time instead of 69% when I raise to my standard 11 big blinds. I experimented with this last month and ended up not liking it. I found that I actually got 4-bet more and called less, you’d think people would do the opposite because of pot odds but this was not the case. It becomes cheaper for people to 4bet bluff you and obviously the way to counter this is to 5 bet jam lighter or be calling 4bets jamming over lots of cbets but I just didn’t like it and prefer 11 big blinds but you’re welcome to experiment with it if you like.)

win 110+15+30=155 x%
lose 270 1-x%
x=270/425=64%(Needs to work 64% of the time to be profitable)

Cold 4Bet
win 110+35+15=160 x%
lose 290 1-x%
x=64%(Needs to work 64% of the time to be profitable)

win 85 x%
lose 145 1-x%
x=63%(Needs to work 63% of the time to be profitable)

win 35+5+145=185 x% (not sure if you add your original 3.5 blinds in here or not, but I did not include it)
lose 300 1-x%
x=300/485=62%(Needs to work 62% of the time to be profitable)

Basically I found that pretty much any preflop play that villain is going to raise or fold to preflop needs to be working about 2/3 of time.

Cool durrr hand I observed that allows him to get value where most people would just call on flop.

Hand I played that got me to really think how I play a lot of hands out of position on the turn(cross posted on CR Forums).

The AJo hand I’m curious what most people are doing because it’s going to determine how to optimally play certain hands as villain and I think people misplay this spot alot. Most people auto 2 barrel most flushdraws and AK+ here but I actually think checking a big % of the time is optimal here. AJ is pretty much the top of our range here 90% of the time I would say since most people raise their good made hands on this flop.

If hero is always bet/folding here then villain should be CR bluffing all his flushdraws and occasional gutshots like KJo and JTo IMO.

If hero is always bet/calling here then villain should be CR AJ+ even though people would usually check/call or just barrel AJ and AK.

If hero is always checking back and betting river then villain should be checking all draws and only betting AJ+.

Comments welcome.

I’m not a big baseball fan, but I do like the Durham Bulls!

2 Responses to “Some "Maths"”

  1. btimm says:

    Thoughts on the AJ hand. Keep in mind the stakes I play which has been predominantly 100nl and 200nl, so I am unsure how different things are at 5/10.

    I think a check on the turn is good here and here is why I think a check is best. You can never be that strong. You are going to be 3betting AA and QQ. You would have raised the flop with 55 (at least I would have). Now, you can be flatting the flop with a queen, as you have showdown value and position and villain should be cbetting this flop, but you wouldn’t bet a queen on the turn. Would you raise AQ on the flop? It would definitely be in your preflop range. You could be calling with draws, as it widens your calling range and you might bet that on the turn as a semibluff. Here is what I am getting at: going through the potential hands, I don’t think you can ever be that strong on the turn. I could be mistaken, but if villain is a thinking player, he can checkraise you confidently with a high expectation of getting folds. I would check the turn here, and either call a bet on most rivers or bet the river if checked to for value.

  2. […] goes along with calculating the expected value or fold equity of hands. You may remember my post on Preflop Math Well using the calculators I have created, you can do this much easier and quicker yourself, except […]

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